Facing the challenges of the second decade of industrial development and maturity requires a more standardized environment, more targeted policies, and more abundant funds

　　Text | "Outlook" News Weekly reporter Liang Xie Song Chen

　　It has been written into the government work report for two consecutive years, with a trillion-dollar market size, and has exceeded 10,000 industry-related companies... Starting from the release of the "National Medium- and Long-term Development Plan for Civil Space Infrastructure (2015-2025)" in 2015, China Commercial Aerospace, which has developed for ten years, has ushered in its own highlight moment in 2024.

　　This year, commercial aerospace was written into the government work report for the first time, becoming a representative of new quality productivity, led by top-level design, local policies, government funds and industrial capital were accelerating the entry of commercial aerospace, and the development of commercial aerospace was welcomed by the source of fresh water; this year, satellite Internet was accelerating the network, and the turning point of recycling rocket technology was imminent, and Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Station was put into use... China's commercial aerospace, which has "took a sword for ten years", has entered a critical stage of rapid growth and transformation and upgrading from the original "blueprint".

　　Looking to the future, my country's commercial aerospace industry is at the critical moment when large-scale networking of satellite Internet is about to be launched. How to achieve technological icebreaking and commercial closed loop faster? How to make the "new growth engine" work better? How to shorten the gap with world-class level? The answer may be a more standardized development environment, more precise support policies and more sufficient financial support.

　　This road is destined to be full of thorns, but as the astronauts often say: "Every second the rocket flies upwards, it breaks through the resistance of the atmosphere."

　　On the journey of the stars and seas, China's commercial aerospace industry is writing space legends of this era with the pen of independent innovation.

The first launch of the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Station was a complete success. The Long March 8 Yao-6 launch vehicle sent the fifth batch of networked satellites of the Qianfan Constellation into the predetermined orbit with the "one arrow and eighteen stars" method (photo taken on March 12, 2025) Photo by Pu Xiaoxu/This issue

　　Ten years of hard work: The climax of industry development is coming as scheduled

　　At the end of December 2024, 12 small satellites of the Yunyao Meteorological Constellation under Tianjin Yunyao Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. entered the China Meteorological Administration's comprehensive meteorological observation system and achieved business operation. This is the first time that domestic commercial small satellite data has been approved to enter the China Meteorological Administration's business system.

　　In the view of Li Fenghui, chairman of Yunyao Aerospace, national orders are not only financial support, but also a technical "vote of trust" for private commercial aerospace enterprises.

　　In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments jointly issued the "National Medium- and Long-term Development Plan for Civil Space Infrastructure (2015-2025)", encouraging social capital to enter the aerospace field, and this year is also regarded as the first year of China's commercial aerospace. After ten years of development, my country's commercial aerospace technology, capital, talents and other factors have accelerated their aggregation, and breakthroughs have been achieved in many fields, entering the "golden growth stage".

　　——The scale of the industry is growing rapidly. Ten years ago, there were less than 10 commercial aerospace companies in China. According to data from the China Aerospace Foundation, as of mid-2024, there were 546 commercial aerospace companies registered and effectively operated in China.

　　While the journey to the Galaxy ushers in more and more "breakers", the commercial aerospace industry chain is also continuing to extend. Zhang Shijie, chief scientist of Galaxy Aerospace, a satellite Internet solution provider and satellite manufacturer, introduced that at present, Galaxy Aerospace’s partners radiate across the country, from more than 100 in 2018 to more than 1,000 now, and the supply chain covers precision processing, casting, electronic integration, electromechanical, materials and other fields.

　　Data from China Business Industry Research Institute shows that the output value of China's commercial aerospace industry increased from 1 trillion yuan in 2020 to around 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.9%. This data is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan in 2025.

　　——Technical breakthroughs are constantly being realized. A commercial aerospace company head said that at the beginning of our business, we only had "a blueprint" and "a passionate heart". At that time, the global commercial aerospace market was completely dominated by American companies such as SpaceX, and Chinese private commercial aerospace companies had not even made breakthroughs in the independent development of rocket engines.

　　In 2024, a number of commercial rockets in my country have undergone vertical take-off and landing recovery verification. This technology is regarded as the key path for commercial rockets to improve launch efficiency and reduce launch costs. In January and September last year, Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Suguchi III" test arrow completed the vertical take-off and landing recovery verification of 10-meter-level and 10-kilometer-level vertical take-off and landing, and completed the first domestic vertical take-off and landing return to the rocket to the air for the second ignition. In 2025, a number of recyclable commercial rockets are expected to make their first flight as planned. This marks the accelerated arrival of my country's technological inflection point for recyclable rockets.

　　Commercial satellites, which are more technologically mature, have begun to explore the model changes from "small customization" to "mass production". Leading enterprises in related fields have launched a "assembly-based" satellite production layout. Against the backdrop of mature industrial chains and production capacity improvements, large-scale networking of commercial satellites has begun, and giant constellations such as Qianfan Constellation and GW Constellation, which are targeting thousands of stars, have begun to form networks.

　　——Infrastructure is steadily implemented. In November last year, Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site successfully completed its first launch mission, and my country's first commercial space launch site was successfully put into use. Since then, the launch vehicle, launch site and payload have formed a stable "triangle structure" of commercial aerospace, and the entire commercial aerospace industry chain has been initially formed.

　　In the view of Fan Ruixiang, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a rocket expert at China Aerospace Science and Technology Group, the first mission of Hainan Commercial Space Launch Center was a complete success, marking a breakthrough from 0 to 1 in my country's commercial space launch site and truly forming the complete ability to perform launches.

Tianzhang satellite staff are checking the assembly of a satellite. Tianzhang Satellite, an enterprise that settled in Hebi Satellite Intelligent Manufacturing Industrial Park, has been successfully approved to build a production qualification for an annual production of 100 satellites. It is a satellite manufacturing base integrating R&D, manufacturing, assembly and testing (photo taken on April 29, 2025) Photo by Du Xiaoyi/This issue

　　Next starting point: Technology application infrastructure coordinated efforts

　　This year, commercial aerospace was once again written into the government work report. This is the second consecutive year that commercial aerospace has appeared in the government work report, and its importance has been further highlighted.

　　Compared with 2024, the expression of commercial aerospace has been adjusted: First, the wording has gone from "cultivation" to "promotion", and it is proposed to conduct "large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies, new products, and new scenarios" for commercial aerospace; Second, commercial aerospace has been clearly defined as "emerging industries"; Third, it emphasizes the safe and healthy development of commercial aerospace.

　　The commercial space industry that enters the next decade has been put on higher expectations. A series of favorable policies, capital investment and technological breakthroughs have brought reasons to the industry to be optimistic. Liao Tongkui, vice chairman of Aerospace Hongtu, believes that looking forward to 2025, my country's commercial aerospace will enter a period of transformation and upgrading; Huo Liang believes that commercial aerospace has moved from the technological exploration stage to the industrialization stage; Bu Xiangwei, co-CEO of Oriental Space and chief designer of the "Graining Series" launch vehicle, believes that my country's commercial aerospace development is in the first rapid growth period, and more and more participants are emerging in all links of the industrial chain...

　　Standing at the new development coordinates, what other goals will commercial aerospace achieve in the next step?

　　Satellite Internet is rapidly forming networks on a large scale. Taking the Qianfan Constellation, which plans more than 15,000 satellites as an example, 54 satellites were launched in just four months in 2024. Under the launch plan of "Eighteen Stars with One Shock", in 2025, Qianfan Constellation will launch hundreds of satellites. The number of satellites launched and the fast networking speed has triggered a lot of discussion in the industry.

　　Satellite launches have entered the era of "scale" and have put forward higher requirements on the development efficiency of commercial satellite enterprises. Galaxy Aerospace has established a complete manufacturing chain of 100 to 2,000 kg satellites. The production line has the development capability of 100 to 150 medium-sized satellites per year, and the development cycle is shortened by 80%. Geely Satellite Super Factory adopts an intelligent grid system, and coordinates the promotion of design, R&D, production, testing and operation. The satellite manufacturing cycle is shortened to 28 days, and the mass production speed has been increased by 10 times.

　　Commercial satellites overlooking the world have their own global attributes, and the overseas business expansion of commercial satellite companies has emerged. Zhang Shijie introduced that the number of satellites is increasing, the variety of satellite platforms is abundant, the improvement of satellite performance, and the commercialization and low-cost satellite manufacturing are constantly enriching satellite application scenarios. Satellites can not only be used in ground emergency relief, forecasting and early warning, but also in navigation services, network communication and other fields.

　　"As a key step in the innovative application of satellite Internet technology, Galaxy Aerospace is accelerating the outbound development of new quality productivity through practical exploration, and using aerospace technology to help the construction of the Belt and Road space information corridor." Zhang Shijie said.

　　Commercial satellites "take the lead" provide more application space for the development of commercial rockets. Against the backdrop of satellite accelerated entry into orbit, the launch frequency of commercial rockets will also increase significantly, and recyclable rockets have shouldered more expectations from the industry.

　　In March this year, Deep Blue Aerospace completed a B4 round of financing with a total scale of nearly 500 million yuan, and the funds will be focused on the research and development and commercialization of recyclable liquid rockets. "This round of financing coincides with the critical node of China's recyclable rockets' shift from technological verification to commercial operations." Huo Liang said that this financing not only provides financial support for the company's subsequent R&D investment and capacity expansion, but also once again confirms the capital market's optimism for the commercial aerospace track.

　　Blue Arrow Aerospace is currently stepping up the development of the first-stage reusable large rocket "Suquegu 3", and it is expected to realize the reuse of the first sub-stage of the "Suquegu 3" rocket in 2026. "In the next three years, there will be a singularity moment in the field of commercial aerospace, that is, the success of reusable technology of rockets, which will advance China's commercial aerospace to the next era." said Zhang Changwu, chairman and CEO of Blue Arrow Aerospace.

　　According to Huo Liang, CEO of Deep Blue Aerospace, Deep Blue Aerospace will also conduct the second vertical take-off and landing recovery verification of the "Nebula 1" launch vehicle this year, and make efforts in commercial satellite installations and commercialization of satellite launches to realize the large-scale and normal launch of the "Nebula Series" recyclable rocket as soon as possible.

　　In the next ten years, reducing launch costs and increasing rocket capacity will still be the mainstream of commercial rocket development. Bu Xiangwei introduced that the company's "Gratio 2" large liquid rocket subsystems have been transferred to the preliminary research and development, with a carrying capacity of 15 tons, and will achieve its first flight before the end of this year. "In the second decade, the recovery and reuse of the Rockets' first sub-stage will become the mainstream, and the cost of space transportation will drop significantly to below 10,000 yuan per kilogram, and the second sub-stage recovery and reuse will begin to explore. Under ideal conditions, the cost is expected to further reduce to below 5,000 yuan per kilogram." Bu Xiangwei said.

　　Infrastructures such as commercial launch sites will also gradually improve their support capabilities. In January this year, the second phase of Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site project was officially started, and two new liquid rocket launch stations were planned to be built on the basis of the original two launch stations.

　　Better development: Looking forward to standardizing the environment and more investment

　　Whether it is the focus of the technological game between great powers, the highly-watched "new growth engine", or the hope that ordinary people can get close to space in their lifetime, commercial space is full of eager expectations. Facing the challenges of the second decade of industrial development and maturity requires a more standardized environment, more targeted policies, and more abundant funds.

　　"We believe that as a reflection of new quality productivity, my country's commercial aerospace is facing unprecedented opportunities, and more disruptive technologies and scientific and technological innovations will continue to emerge." Zhang Shijie said that he hopes that in the next stage of commercial aerospace development, more key industrial resources can be opened to private enterprises, improve the efficiency of production factors flow, and release more policy space for private enterprises.

　　Specifically, we can give full play to the role of an effective market, explore innovative systems and mechanisms, market access, inclusive supervision, new business format rules, etc., and break down a number of institutional obstacles that restrict the development of new technologies, new business formats and new models.

　　In the view of industry insiders, the current disruptive innovation of commercial aerospace in my country's current commercial aerospace "from 0 to 1", and most innovations are concentrated in the local, scattered and improved "from 1 to 10". This not only stems from the fact that my country's commercial aerospace is still young and still needs to be accumulated, but also a rational choice to face reality.

　　Bu Xiangwei introduced that commercial aerospace is a typical high-investment industry. The application of disruptive innovative technologies requires a large amount of capital and resource investment. While high risks, the return cycle is also very long. Commercial startups and investors often take a wait-and-see attitude. “This means 'steadily advancing, incremental innovation' becoming the choice of many commercial space companies.”

　　At present, many private commercial aerospace enterprises in my country have not yet achieved a closed loop of profits. It still takes time to produce self-hemoglomeration, but the product needs repeated trials and iterations to improve product reliability and user confidence. The industry expects to provide more order support. At present, commercial rockets are at the technical turning point, and they need more support and then have the funds and strength to actively carry out independent innovation and research and development.

　　An accident occurred during the test drive of Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong 3" rocket in 2024. The rocket broke out of the launch pad and disintegrated in the deep mountains of Gongyi, Henan.

　　Setbacks on the road to growth should not become a resistance to the overall development of the industry. Observing SpaceX's iteration path, it is not difficult to find that "failure" is the development model it has always adhered to. Safety and development are the "one body and two wings" of my country's commercial aerospace development. Commercial aerospace companies call for the introduction of a more scientific regulatory system that can clarify the rules of commercial aerospace development in the entire process and streamline the responsibilities of all parties to ensure the safe and healthy development of commercial aerospace.

　　Looking to the next decade of my country's commercial aerospace, there may be a gap with the ultimate vision of "buying air tickets to go to space", but the past decade has still given people a reason to remain optimistic about industrial development. From breaking the ice of policies to forming a star link, from drawings in the laboratory to the flames that rockets cut through the sky, China's ten years of commercial aerospace are a history of struggle full of passion and innovation.

　　When engineers born in the 1990s cheered at the launch site, when satellite data helped rescue the affected villages, and when private rockets stood side by side with the national team, this starry sky witnessed not only a leap in technology, but also a nation's unstoppable exploration. In the next ten years, China's commercial aerospace industry will usher in more and more important "highlight moments" - this moment will belong to all those who look up at the stars.

[Editor in charge: Chen Tingyu]