According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 11th, the content of the draft "Defense White Paper" of the 2025 edition of the Japanese Ministry of Defense was recently exposed. The draft claims that China and Russia are strengthening cooperation, including military activities, is a "major concern in Japan's security." Experts interviewed by Global Times reporters believe that Japan's exaggeration of the "China threat theory" is essentially to find excuses to increase the defense budget.

  The Asahi Shimbun said that when discussing the situation around Japan, the 2025 edition of the "Defense White Paper" draft declared that "there may be a situation similar to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in East Asia" and said that Japan will "climb the biggest test period after the war and enter a new era of crisis." According to the report, the draft continues the statement of China's military trends in 2024, regarding it as "the greatest strategic challenge that has never been seen before", and said that it is necessary for Japan to promote cooperation and coordination with allies and "like-minded" countries.

  According to reports from Japanese Kyodo News and other Japanese media, the draft claims that China is "rapidly strengthening its nuclear, missile, maritime and aviation combat capabilities", and the People's Liberation Army's military activities around Taiwan show that "(Chinese military) is trying to improve practical combat capabilities." When referring to the South China Sea, the draft said it was "directly related to peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region" and that "China is advancing the construction of military bases (in the region). The draft also claims that China and Russia "strengthen the ability to interfere with other countries' use of space" and "the state and the military may participate in cyber attacks."

  In addition, the 2025 edition of the "Defense White Paper" also lists military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, saying that "the security environments in each region are interrelated, and events that occur in one region will have a multi-level impact on the security environment in other regions." When discussing the international situation, the draft said that "the balance of power is undergoing major changes, and competition between countries is becoming increasingly obvious" and "especially the competition between the United States and China may become more intense."

  "These accusations involving China are groundless. The essence is to create trouble and exaggerate the "China threat theory." Lu Yaodong, a researcher at the Institute of Japan of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times reporter on the 11th that Japan's new version of the "White Paper on Defense" talks about Sino-US relations and compares the situation in East Asia to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. They are all continuing the argument that "Ukrainian crisis East Asianization" clamored by some Japanese politicians, and deliberately exaggerates the "peripheral threat theory" and "China threat theory".

  Lu Yaodong believes that the Japanese government's exaggeration of these threat theories is intended to provide an excuse for its increased defense budget. The "Three Security Documents" passed by Japan at the end of 2022 stipulates that the defense budget will be increased to about 2% of GDP in the fiscal years 2023 to 2027. "When facing questions from the "Constitutional Democratic Party" opposition parties in the parliament, if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party does not exaggerate external threats, it will be difficult to explain the significant increase in the defense budget." Lu Yaodong said, "Therefore, the Japanese government has continuously exaggerated the so-called "China threat" through the annual "Defense White Paper", spreading the concepts and remarks that the surrounding security environment has deteriorated and Japan is threatened, and needs to strengthen its defense forces to deal with it."

  The Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) website said that the Japanese Ministry of Defense will prepare the 2025 edition of the "Defense White Paper" based on the draft, and report to the cabinet meeting in July this year, and then officially announce it.

[Editor in charge: Wang Jinzhi]