The Australian Air Force is equipped with the F/A-18 "Super Hornet" fighter.

  According to Australian media reports, the current situation in the Indo-Pacific region is becoming increasingly complex. At the same time, Trump has begun a new term, which has affected Australia's strategic environment. Against this backdrop, the Australian government has to seek a balance between safeguarding its own interests and maintaining relations with its US allies.

  The cornerstone of the Australian-US alliance is the Australian-New Zealand-US Security Treaty (i.e. the Pacific Security Treaty) signed in 1951. Under the treaty, the United States promises to respond together with Australia and New Zealand when it encounters armed attacks in the Pacific. However, under the current complex and changing international situation, this cornerstone has begun to shake, and the Australian-US military alliance relationship is at the risk of "breaking". The key reason is Trump's indifference to the current situation in Australia and his more specific and quantitative requirements for the concept of "union". For example, he asked Australia to increase defense spending by 30%, accelerate payment of the "Auscus" nuclear submarine project, and speed up approval of the US military to build bases in northern Australia.

  Faced with the US's step-by-step pressing, Australia has promised to invest up to AU$368 billion (about US$235 billion) in the nuclear submarine project under the "Auscus" framework, but theoretically it will not be possible to receive the first nuclear submarine until 2040. Former Australian Defense Minister Christopher Pine said the project will put Australia in financial overdrafts and bear additional debts of 0.7% of GDP each year. The Australian strategic community is generally concerned that the country has fallen into the "sinking cost trap". The more investment it invests, the harder it will be to get rid of the deep binding with the US Indo-Pacific strategy, and may eventually lose the initiative in a "big bet".

  Australian media commented that "the US president only cares whether the money the US spends to protect Australia is worth the money." The economic and trade policies implemented by Trump are "economic nationalism" in color, which has dealt a heavy blow to the Australian economy. In March this year, the Trump administration announced that it would refuse to impose exemptions from import tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum products, and decided to impose tariffs of 15% and 25% on aluminum and steel products imported from Australia, respectively. The forecast data shows that the two tariff policies will cause Australian exporters to suffer more than $1.2 billion in direct economic losses. In order to ease economic pressure, Australia has tried to convince the US to grant tariff exemptions on the grounds of "alliance obligations". However, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Glair, who regulates the implementation of tariff policies, responded that Australia has long profited from U.S.-Australia relations and imposing tariffs on its steel and aluminum products is a requirement for Australia to "pay accumulated debts."

  In order to deal with the dilemma brought by Trump's administration, Australia has taken a series of measures, including accelerating the development of local missile production capacity, deepening cooperative relations within the framework of the "Quad-party Security Dialogue" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia (especially military exchanges with Japan), expanding the "Pacific Maritime Security" project, and establishing a Southeast Asian Resilience Fund aimed at enhancing regional influence. The Australian Defense Minister said the measures “consider the dual needs of maintaining alliance relations and advancing strategic autonomy in the country.” "We can no longer rely on the support of the United States as we used to. The more we rely on it, the more Trump will feel that he can extract more value from you, even blackmail and blackmail."

  Faced with the complex game between the US-Australia alliance, Australia's choices will not only concern its own strategic security, but will also affect the regional balance of power. What decisions will Australia make in the military and diplomatic fields in the future? It is worth further observation. (Wu Hao)

[Editor in charge: Wang Jinzhi]