According to CCTV News, on May 8 local time, US President Trump said that the United States has just reached a rare earth agreement with Ukraine, and the agreement has now been signed and approved, and the United States can obtain "a large number of very high-quality rare earths . "

Zelensky: Mineral Agreements are Historic

A 30-day ceasefire is ready to be implemented from now on

On May 8 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed on social media that he had a telephone conversation with US President Trump.

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The two sides welcomed the Ukrainian Supreme Lada's approval of the agreement on the establishment of the Ukrainian reconstruction investment fund (i.e. the Ukrainian mineral agreement). Zelensky said this is a document of real historical significance , opening up many new opportunities for cooperation for the two countries.

Zelensky said the heads of state focused on discussing the need to further promote peace and explored the specific steps that could be taken. President Trump asked about the current situation on the battlefield in Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky gave a detailed introduction on this and said that Ukraine is ready to achieve a 30-day ceasefire from now on . Zelensky said that Ukraine is willing to engage in any form of negotiation, but the premise is that Russia must show sincerity to end the war, and the first step is to achieve a comprehensive and unconditional ceasefire.

US President Trump posted on social media on the same day that negotiations with Russia and Ukraine are still continuing, calling on both sides to reach a 30-day unconditional ceasefire agreement.

Organization: Development costs at least 10 years

No data proves that development of Ukrainian minerals is economically feasible

On May 8 local time, Ukraine's highest Lada (Parliament) supported the approval of the Ukrainian mineral agreement with 338 votes in favor. Earlier, Ukraine's first deputy prime minister and economic minister Sverrikenko said that if the agreement is successfully passed in parliament, the "U.S.-Ukrainian Reconstruction Investment Fund" will start operating within weeks.

On April 30, the United States and Ukraine jointly signed the "U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U.S.-U. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on May 1 that the text of the Ukrainian-US mineral agreement "has undergone significant changes" during the negotiations, and the final version does not have Ukrainian debt repayment clause. “Now it’s a truly equal agreement that creates opportunities for large-scale investment in Ukraine.”

Although the signing of the mineral agreement between the United States and Ukraine is regarded as a signal of easing relations, its actual effect remains to be seen.

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Some mineral consulting agencies analyzed that it may take 10 to 20 years to develop key strategic minerals in countries with mature mining industries, and there is currently a lack of sufficient data to prove that the development of most mineral resources in Ukraine is economically feasible . In addition, infrastructure such as electricity and transportation have been damaged by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the security prospects are unclear, investors may be cautious.

" If anyone thinks that all the minerals will be shipped out immediately from Ukraine, it's pure dream ," said Adam Webb, head of minerals at benchmark mining intelligence firms based in London, UK.

CNN commented that the U.S.-U.S.-U.S. mineral agreements are mostly symbolic , and both sides "get their needs." The new US administration needs to see substantial returns in supporting Ukraine, while Ukraine needs to prove that its relationship with the US government is not only operating effectively, but also continuing to deepen. On the surface, this agreement is extensive and subversive, but its actual impact is not immediate, and it is more like a "emergency band-aid".

Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Conference, hinted on social media that Ukraine was forced to reach an agreement with the United States, which means that the United States "undermines the Ukrainian regime" and that Ukraine has to use mineral resources to compensate U.S. military aid.

Overseas rare earth prices soar, some varieties doubled

US media: Trump has to ship rare earths to China for processing when he finds them

It is worth mentioning that according to the Securities Times, overseas rare earth prices have risen sharply recently. Data released by the international energy and commodity price assessment agency Argus on May 6 showed that the European monthly appraisal price of dysprosium oxide of Argus jumped from US$250/kg to US$310/kg a month ago to US$700/kg to US$1,000/kg. The 99.99% terbium oxide in Europe's shore price rose from US$930/kg to US$1,000/kg in early April to US$2,000/kg to US$4,000/kg. The increase and price of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide are the highest values ​​in history since Argus launched the price evaluation of the two products in 2015.

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The head of Argus' non-ferrous metal analysis team said that the increase was mainly due to the fact that China began to implement export controls for China-Heavy Rare Earth at the beginning of last month. Overseas buyers were unable to buy rare earth products, inventory bottomed out and panic quotes, but not many were actually sold.

The head of the Argus non-ferrous metal analysis team said that due to China's rare earth export control in April, the supply of rare earths was cut off, and overseas rare earth users' inventory was relatively limited, and there was a strong demand for replenishment of inventory.

The European and American markets are closely linked, and the United States' rare earth prices have risen more than Europe, especially yttrium. American buyers want to obtain more non-Chinese rare earth products for their production needs, and currently there are almost no non-Chinese rare earths available. "The United States is more difficult to obtain Chinese rare earths than Europe, so the increase is higher than that of Europe."

Two days after U.S. President Trump announced on April 2 that he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods, China announced export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth-related items.

The New York Times said on April 13 that China's export controls on rare earth metals and rare earth magnets have caused panic in related industries in the United States, and they are worried that this may lead to supply shortages of these minerals and related products. The scale of emergency reserves for companies to deal with such emergencies varies greatly, and the time for production interruptions is difficult to predict. The Wall Street Journal published an article saying that China dominates the field of rare earth processing. Even if Trump can allow American companies to mine more rare earth resources, he may have to transport most of the rare earths to China for processing .

For example, as the biggest hope for the United States to build a local rare earth industry chain, MP Materials, the leading American rare earths company, has relied on Chinese partners to refine rare earths for many years . Most of the company's concentrate has been sold under the contract to its fourth largest shareholder, China Shenghe Resources Corporation (600392.SH). Documents show that MP Materials achieved a total revenue of US$204 million last year, with about 80% of which comes from the sale of rare earth concentrate to China . The document also shows that Chinese companies settle imports of MP Materials based on "market prices minus tariffs and other costs." Therefore, the business of MP Materials has stalled because "selling these materials under a 125% tariff is not in line with commercial rationality."

According to Argus data, China's gallium, rare earth oxides, metals, and rare earth magnetic materials account for about 90% of the global total supply, while tungsten, tellurium and bismuth products account for about 80% . According to Baichuan Yingfu data, China's contribution to global terbium oxide and dysprosium oxide in 2024 is 98% and 99% (including imported ore sources) , and China's export of terbium and dysprosium and dysprosium is 9.5 times and 8.1 times the overseas output.

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Daniel Haines, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank: China has almost control over the entire supply chain , not only owning most of the global rare earth mineral production, but more importantly, it controls the processing links in the supply chain , including refining, smelting and making available components, and its global market share reaches about 80% to 90% .

Xiong Wenguang, a rare earth analyst at the Shanghai Steel Unit Rare and Precious Metals Information Department, said that it is difficult to appear reliable substitutes overseas in the short term. In the near future, foreign companies may relieve supply pressure by consuming inventory, material optimization, recycling and emerging technologies. Complete substitutes must rely on technological revolution, which requires a large amount of capital to invest in research and development. In the case of complex and changeable international situation, it is difficult to achieve .

Putin: The "Victory Day ceasefire" has come into effect and lasts for 3 days

Russian President Putin announced on the 8th local time that the "Victory Day ceasefire" has come into effect at 0:00 Moscow time on the same day.

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Russian President Putin decided on April 28 to implement a ceasefire during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War in the Soviet Union, that is, 0:00 on May 8 to 0:00 on May 11 . During this period of time, all military operations will be stopped.

On the 29th local time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said after attending the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Brazil that this decision is to create opportunities for direct negotiations without prerequisites by Russia and Ukraine.

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Lavrov said that at the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Russia has elaborated on the solution proposals on the situation in Ukraine in detail. He said that the proposal of "Victory Day ceasefire" proposed by Russian President Putin is to create opportunities for direct negotiations without prerequisites by Russia and Ukraine. Lavrov said that the Ukrainian army is currently in a retreating position, and Ukraine turned to require a 30-day ceasefire. Russia is clear about the actual intention of Ukraine's statement .

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Lavrov also said that Russia believes it is difficult to establish a fair mechanism to supervise the implementation of the long-term ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. The ceasefire initiative proposed by US President Trump has no impact on Ukraine. He said that Russia has recorded hundreds of ceasefire violations, and the relevant list of evidence has been submitted to the United Nations and informed the United States. Lavrov said the data showed that the actual effect of the ceasefire call was limited.

In addition, Lavrov also stated that Russia is willing to engage in constructive dialogue with the United States, but emphasized that the development of such relations will not come at the expense of the interests of Russia's existing partners.

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